By Josiah Tsui

While the world waits to see what domestic policy changes Xi Jinping will implement as the new President of China, it is worth noting that the issues now taking precedence in mainland China have been developing for some time in Hong Kong. The most notable of these are economic inequality, environmental sustainability, and government accountability.

Hong Kong was a British colony for 154 years but became a semi-autonomous Special Administrative Region (SAR) after the British returned Hong Kong to China in 1997. Under British rule, Hong Kong transformed from an inauspicious fishing village to a wealthy metropolis of seven million inhabitants. This transformation was accompanied by the emergence of sprawling subway lines, street signs in two languages, and a conspicuous hierarchy of neighborhoods and schools.

It would be facile to compare the developments of Hong Kong and China directly. After all, China has a history that stretches back thousands of years, as well as a legacy of conflict and revolution spanning substantial portions of the twentieth century. Hong Kong’s history, on the other hand, is far shorter, and cannot be separated from its origins in China. What should be emphasized between the two is not the similar arc of development, but the way in which Hong Kong’s situation is, and will remain, a challenge to China’s authoritarian stance.

It has not been an easy year for Hong Kong’s leaders, who have the unenviable task of trying to please both party leaders in Beijing and citizens in Hong Kong. Last June, Hong Kong university students organized the largest commemoration of the Tiananmen Square Massacre to date. In July, on the 15th anniversary of Hong Kong’s handover from Great Britain to China, tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in protest of government corruption and income inequality. More recently, parents in Hong Kong protested China’s proposed civic education act, which required communist history to be taught in schools. In local newspapers and television reports, the same images and sentiments appeared over and over throughout the year. There were protesters with banners and posters, parents who threatened to move elsewhere, and countless interviews with ordinary citizens concerned about Hong Kong’s future.

In fact, Hong Kong’s recent transition of power was remarkably similar to the current developments within China’s Politburo, as Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun- Ying’s election and inauguration were marred by allegations of misconduct and a string of popular protests. Perhaps the biggest controversy during the election was that both Leung and his opponent, Henry Tang, had constructed illegal additions to their lavish homes. Apart from betraying the trust that Hong Kong residents had in their government, the scandal raised concerns about the future of Hong Kong’s political process. The Chinese government in Beijing has stated that it plans to implement universal suffrage in Hong Kong in 2017, but many citizens doubt these elections will bring about legitimate, transparent governance.

Hong Kong faces the same balancing act as many other countries in the region: it must weigh the economic advantages of a relationship with mainland China against a multitude of ethical and humanitarian concerns. The problem is magnified in Hong Kong’s case because of its economic and territorial proximity to mainland China. “We do not like China,” a Hong Kong resident told me, “but we love their money.” If they were being honest, party leaders in Beijing might say the same thing about Hong Kong. It is a financial capital full of exquisite restaurants and hotels, not to mention the premier shopping destination for mainland China’s elite. Chinese citizens and leaders alike recognize that cities in mainland China will begin to look more and more like Hong Kong in the future.

Given these similarities and circumstances, it would behoove outside observers to take note of how the Chinese government handles Hong Kong’s path to direct elections. Hong Kong’s first fifteen years as an SAR have coincided with China’s rapid ascension in the global economy. This fact alone has made it easier to gloss over internal disagreements. As China’s own populace begins to grow uneasy, however, leaders in Beijing will reveal their designs for mainland China in the way they manage Hong Kong’s democratic government. If they allow peaceful protests and facilitate the city’s transition to universal suffrage, China may eventually soften its stance on dissidents domestically. If they stall the transition or institute anti-subversion laws, the world should not expect Xi Jinping’s tenure to be very different from that of Hu Jintao.

About the Author

Josiah Tsui is a master’s candidate at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. His concentrations are in American Foreign Policy and Quantitative Methods and Economic Theory. In the summer of 2012, he conducted policy research for Civic Exchange, a public policy think tank based in Hong Kong. 

View this op-ed as a PDF Denise Lim served as Lead Editor for this op-ed.