By María Rodríguez-Domínguez

The 1,900-mile common border between the United States and Mexico remains a corridor for the smuggling of firearms, ammunition, and drugs. This flow of illegal goods threatens national security, generates socioeconomic damage, and inflicts human costs in both countries.

Illicit arms trafficking from the United States to Mexico, in particular, has been a priority in the U.S.-Mexico bilateral agenda for more than a decade. The George W. Bush administration launched the existing binational security strategy — the so-called Merida Initiative — under the principle of shared responsibility on diverse issues, including crime and violence, as well as drugs and firearms trafficking.[1] More recently, both countries advanced their collaboration by creating a High-Level Security Group (GANSEG, in Spanish) that encompasses eight working subgroups, each addressing specific problem areas, including arms trafficking.[2] Unfortunately, the problem continues across the border, and as some believe, is becoming more troublesome. 

The moment is ripe for renewed cooperation between the United States, where President Joe Biden seeks to end gun violence, and Mexico, where President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has prioritized curbing the illicit flow of U.S. weapons.[3] These converging agendas provide an opportunity for serious action against illicit arms trafficking. For any strategy to be successful, it must be based on equal partnership and recognize the interrelation between the flow of drugs northward and firearms heading south.

Diagnosing the Problem

The most recent data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), a U.S. federal law enforcement agency within the Department of Justice, shows that of the 19,577 firearms recovered in Mexico in 2019, and of those that were submitted to ATF for tracing, 68.4 percent were either manufactured in or imported from the United States.[4] Up to 230,000 firearms are smuggled every year, and an estimated 2.5 million illicit firearms have arrived in Mexico over the last decade.[5] About 75 percent of weapons used in crimes committed in Mexican territory come from three U.S. border states: Texas (41 percent), California (19 percent), and Arizona (15 percent).[6] The majority of weapons that arrive in Mexico, particularly assault and semi-automatic weapons, end up in the hands of drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs), rendering them more lethal. The availability of firearms is a factor in the increasing violence taking place in the country. For instance, the number of homicides in Mexico has risen to disturbing levels. Despite the confinement measures implemented during the pandemic, there were more than 17,000 homicides in the country in the first half of 2020, and 72 percent of which were gun-related homicides.[7] In 1997, meanwhile, gun-related homicides represented only 15 percent of the total number of homicides.[8] The skyrocketing number of assassinations has strongly impacted Mexican human capital. From 2000-2010, male life expectancy was reduced by 0.6 years.[9] In addition to the human costs, crime also costs Mexico about 1.5 percent of its GDP annually.[10] 

This gun violence epidemic is not exclusive to Mexico. Firearms have taken the lives of thousands of U.S. citizens. In 2020, there were over 43,500 gun-related deaths in the United States, including 19,353 homicides and 24,156 suicides, as well as 611 mass shootings and 21 mass murders.[11] The U.S. gun-related death rate — 3.96 gun-related deaths per 100,000 people in 2019 — is eight times higher than that of Canada, and nearly 100 times higher than that of the United Kingdom.[12] It is estimated that gun violence costs the United States $229 billion a year.[13] Gun sales soared during the pandemic; 23 million firearms were sold in 2020 and more than 2 million guns were purchased last January, an 80 percent jump year-over-year.[14] An increase in gun sales now is likely to lead to more smuggling in the future.

The illicit firearms that arrive in Mexico come from a variety of sources. A common trafficking scheme is through straw purchases—weapons that are bought on behalf of a third person who is legally prohibited from purchasing guns.[15] Straw purchasers lack criminal history and are normally unaware of the final destination of the weapon they are buying. These buyers range from people suffering from addiction, senior citizens, or even teenagers buying weapons in exchange for money.[16] A significant number of the weapons that are lost or stolen in the United States also end up in Mexico. About 1.2 million weapons were stolen in the United States between 2012 and 2015, with the majority of them in Texas.[17] Given the geographic proximity to the Mexican border, it is likely that many of them ended up in Mexico.[18] 

Weak laws and loopholes in the existing regulations do little to prevent illicit firearms trafficking from the United States. To date, gun trafficking is not a federal crime. Although other criminal offenses are regulated, such as straw-purchasing, offenders are treated as paperwork violators and are often discharged.[19] The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) is limited to Federal Firearms Licensee (FFL) holders. Unlicensed private sellers are not required to perform a background check on buyers, via the Internet or at a gun show, allowing for almost anyone to acquire a gun, and making it more difficult to determine if buyers deliberately sold their weapons to gun traffickers.[20] Half of all U.S. states have closed this loophole by expanding background checks to cover non-licensed dealers—but the remaining twenty five continue to allow it.[21] Current regulations also allow for multiple sales by the same individual. Buyers have to show proof of identity to purchase a gun, but there is no federal mechanism to check the validity of the documents.[22] A recent trend in the arms market is the emergence of “ghost guns” or guns that are assembled from parts, even from 3D printing. These ghost guns lack serial numbers and are untraceable.[23] Currently, the parts are not regulated as firearms, and licensees and other retailers are not obliged to report on the purchase and distribution of these parts.[24] 

In 2004, the ten-year Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act, commonly referred to as the assault weapons ban, expired. All semi-automatic weapons (except those banned by state law) were thus legalized in the United States.[25] As a consequence, both the United States and Mexico saw an increase in gun-related deaths. Mass shooting deaths rose by 347 percent in the United States from 2004 to 2014. Homicides in Mexican border regions also increased, with the notable exception of those areas bordering California, where a state-level ban on assault weapons was put in place.[26] High-caliber semi-automatic rifles, which include AK-47 and AR-15 variants, as well as 0.50-caliber guns, have become the preferred weapons of DTOs.[27] This level of firepower disadvantages law enforcement: 464 police officers in Mexico were killed, many by high-powered weapons, from January to September of 2020 alone.[28] Buying assault weapons has become a lucrative business for drug traffickers: it is estimated that AR-platform firearms purchased in the United States will sell at four times their price on the Mexican black market.[29] 

As all this demonstrates, firearms and drug trafficking are intertwined. Reducing the flow of illicit firearms would not only diminish the power of DTOs, but it would also increase the effectiveness of drug policies and alleviate the opioid crisis that currently affects the United States. From May 2019 to May 2020, 81,000 U.S. citizens died of drug overdoses, mainly due to synthetic opioids.[30] This represented an annual increase of 38.4 percent.[31] According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there were 116 daily opioid overdose deaths in 2016.[32] Mexican DTOs have diversified and expanded their control of the lucrative fentanyl market by becoming intermediaries in the distribution of Chinese-made fentanyl.[33] Mexican authorities continue notching record-breaking seizures of fentanyl every year. Last year, federal security forces seized 1.3 tons of synthetic opioids, an increase of 486 percent over 2019.[34] Unfortunately, the rising demand and the profitability of synthetic opioids will only make these criminal groups more eager to increase their firepower to maintain control of the market. 

Gun violence represents a public health emergency for Mexico and the United States. Lowering the access to weapons by DTOs is necessary to substantially improve the security of the region, and to build shared prosperity for Mexicans and Americans. 

Opportunities and Prospects

Mexico has made illicit firearms trafficking a high priority in its bilateral relationship with the United States. President López Obrador instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) to design and develop an interagency strategy to curb illicit arms trafficking.[35] The SRE’s strategy is based on strengthening intelligence and information sharing between Mexico and the United States, carrying out coordinated operations, and improving equipment and technical capacity. For instance, the two countries have been implementing joint operations or mirror patrols at some main border crossings using non-intrusive technology, such as X-ray, to detect smugglers–a scheme proposed by Mexico in 2019.[36] Additionally, thirteen of the Mexican border consulates regularly report on operations and seizures carried out at the border crossings for a newly-created database.[37] In addition to tactical operations, the SRE, with the support of its consular network in the United States, the largest in the world, has deployed a soft power strategy to “raise awareness of the impact of illegal arms trafficking in Mexico and to bring together like-minded people.”[38] Finally, under the updated National Security Law, the SRE will chair GANSEG, where it will continue to advance strategic actions based on common objectives to strengthen U.S.-Mexico cooperation on this issue.[39] 

Biden, meanwhile, has a record of prioritizing gun control. As a senator, he helped pass the federal background checks law and the ten-year assault weapons ban.[40] He ran on a presidential platform that included several measures recommended by researchers and advocacy groups to reduce gun-related violence, such as universal background checks, prosecution of straw purchasers, prohibition of new assault weapons and regulation of existing ones, and closing several loopholes in the current federal system.[41] The measures would also provide more funding to ATF and other Justice Department agencies, instruct ATF to issue annual reports on firearms trafficking, and encourage “red flag” laws that temporarily permit immediate family or law enforcement to remove an individual’s access to firearms when posing a danger to themselves or others.[42] The plan also houses oversight of firearms exports under the U.S. Department of State, as opposed to a rule that shifted export control to the jurisdiction of the U.S. Department of Commerce.[43] Further, Biden’s plan to end the opioid crisis recognizes that bilateral cooperation is necessary to halt the flow of illicit drugs and seeks to establish “a common agenda with Mexico that looks beyond our shared border to promote our shared prosperity and protect U.S. national security interests.”[44]

Since 2008, the Merida Initiative accounts for the majority of U.S. foreign assistance to Mexico. Congress approved $150 million for the Initiative for the fiscal year 2021, bringing total support to more than $3 billion since its creation.[45] While there have been indications of success, particularly with regards to institutional strengthening and the Initiative’s support to implement the Mexican judicial reform, the number of homicides and drug-related deaths continues to increase. This may be partly influenced by the fact that the Merida Initiative has favored an approach focused on high profile kingpins and militarized tactics to target organized crime. The Biden administration’s public stance suggests that the time is ripe to engage in in-depth discussions as equal partners and further analysis to assess the efficacy of the Merida Initiative. 

The 2020 Report of the Western Hemisphere Drug Policy Commission, presented to the U.S. House of Representatives last December, acknowledged that “the Merida Initiative is in urgent need of reassessment,” and it specifically recommended enhancing measures against illicit firearms trafficking.[46] Therefore, a new and more comprehensive security framework that goes beyond a military approach is necessary to effectively address the underlying conditions that increase violence, such as corruption and illicit drug and firearms flow. The United States and Mexico should continue working together to find appropriate mechanisms to address shared problems. Both countries should recognize that preventing illicit arms trafficking is essential to reduce the flow of narcotics that is killing citizens on both sides of the border.

Challenges

One challenge in implementing a new security framework is political: gun control remains one of the most divisive issues among U.S. lawmakers. It remains unclear whether the current U.S. administration has enough congressional support to enact new legislation or if it may resort to executive authority to do so. The Biden-Harris campaign, for its part, noted that as Vice President, Biden was tasked with developing executive actions to reduce gun violence, signaling that Biden might be willing to pursue similar actions now.[47]

Among American citizens, however, the issue is more bipartisan than it might seem from Capitol Hill. A 2021 survey from the Pew Research Center revealed that 53 percent of Americans favor stricter gun laws (down from a peak of 60 percent in 2019), and more than 80 percent of Republicans and Democrats approve of background checks and purchase restrictions for people with mental illnesses.[48] Unlike in Mexico, firearms in the United States are regulated at the local level, which makes it more difficult to effect change from a national level. Some states like California have enacted bans on assault weapons, unlike Texas where gun regulations are more permissive. For instance, starting September 1, Texas will join five other states in allowing citizens to carry handguns in public without permits or training.[49]

Conclusion 

A new security framework between the United States and Mexico is necessary to stop the bloodshed caused by the illicit flow of arms on both sides of the border. Such a plan must envision U.S.-Mexico cooperation as a shared responsibility and recognize the intertwined nature of drugs and arms trafficking. There is no single root cause of gun violence, and work still needs to be done by Mexico to reduce impunity and corruption in the country. 

The current cooperation strategy has been more successful in advancing the institutionalization of the rule of law than in reducing violence and the power of drug-trafficking organizations. It is imperative that both countries evaluate which programs and tactics are producing results and enact new and more comprehensive measures to curb illicit firearms trafficking. The Biden administration’s plan to take on gun violence is a positive step toward a renewed bilateral partnership on this issue.

About the Author

María Rodríguez-Domínguez is a graduate of the Yale Jackson Institute. She is a career diplomat currently advising the Chief of Staff to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Mexico on economic issues.

Endnotes

1. Clare Ribando Seelke, “Mexico: Evolution of the Mérida Initiative, 2007-2021,” Congressional Research Service, CRS In Focus, updated January 13, 2021, 1-2, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10578.

2. Jorge Medellín “Crean México y EU nuevo Grupo de Alto Nivel de Seguridad,” EstadoMayor.mx, January 10, 2020, https://www.estadomayor.mx/95664.

3. Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon, “Foreword,” Revista Mexicana de Política Exterior, Special Issue (July 2020): 7-10, https://revistadigital.sre.gob.mx/images/stories/numeros/ne2020/rmpene2020foreword.pdf; “The Biden Plan to End Our Gun Violence Epidemic,” Biden-Harris,  n.d., accessed February 12, 2021. https://joebiden.com/gunsafety/. 

4. “Mexico. Data Source: Firearms Tracing System,” United States Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, 10 March 2020, 1-14 https://www.atf.gov/file/144886/download.

5. Fabián Medina, “A Snapshot of Illicit Arms Trafficking in Mexico,” Revista Mexicana De Política Exterior, Special Issue (July 2020): 11-22, https://revistadigital.sre.gob.mx/images/stories/numeros/ne2020/medinasnapshotrmpe2020.pdf.

6. Chelsea Parsons and Eugenio Weigend Vargas, “Beyond Our Borders: How Weak U.S. Gun Laws Contribute to Violent Crime Abroad,” Center for American Progress, February 2, 2018, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/guns-crime/reports/2018/02/02/445659/beyondour-borders/. 

7. Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography, “Datos preliminares revelan que de enero a junio de 2020 se registraron 17 123 homicidios,” Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography, January 26, 2021, 1-8, https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/saladeprensa/boletines/2021/EstSociodemo/Defcioneshomicidio_En-Jun2020.pdf.

8. José Reyes, “México: 68.7% del total de homicidios es con armas de fuego”, Contralínea, June 15, 2021, https://contralinea.com.mx/mexico-68-7-del-total-de-homicidios-es-con-armas-de-fuego/. 

9. José Manuel Aburto, Hiram Beltran-Sanchez, Victor Manuel García-Guerrero y Vladimir Canudas-Romo, “Homicides In Mexico Reversed Life Expectancy Gains For Men And Slowed Them For Women, 2000–10,” Health Affairs, Vol. 35, no. 1 (January 2016):  88-95, doi: https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2015.0068. 

10. “National Survey on Victimization and Perception of Public Safety (ENVIPE) 2020,” Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography, December 2020, 1-59,  https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/programas/envipe/2020/doc/envipe2020_presentacion_nacional.pdf. 

11. "Gun Violence Archive 2020," Gun Violence Archive, February 12, 2021, https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/past-tolls.

12. Nurith Aizenman, “Gun Violence Deaths: How the U.S. Compares with the Rest of the World”, NPR, March 24, 2021, https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/03/24/980838151/gun-violence-deaths-how-the-u-s-compares-to-the-rest-of-the-world. 

13.  “A State-by-State Examination of the Economic Costs of Gun Violence,” U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee Democratic Staff,  September 28, 2019, 1-56, https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/b2ee3158-aff4-4563-8c3b-0183ba4a8135/economic-costs-of-gun-violence.pdf.

14. Hannah Denham and Andrew Ba Tran, “Fearing violence and political uncertainty, Americans are buying millions more firearms,” The Washington Post, February 3, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/02/03/gun-sales-january-background-checks/.  

15. Parsons and Weigend Vargas, “Beyond Our Borders: How Weak U.S. Gun Laws Contribute to Violent Crime Abroad.”

16. Sieff, Kevin, and Nick Miroff, "The Sniper Rifles Flowing To Mexican Cartels Show A Decade Of U.S. Failure," The Washington Post, November 19, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mexico-losing-control/mexico-drug-cartels-sniper-rifles-us-gun-policy/. 

17. David Pérez Esparza, “The Illicit Trafficking of Firearms to Mexico: A Perspective from Confiscations,” Revista Mexicana De Política Exterior, Special Issue (July 2020): 27-37, https://revistadigital.sre.gob.mx/images/stories/numeros/ne2020/perezesparzaconfiscations.pdf. 

18. Ibid., 35.

19. Agrawal, Devika, "Combating U.S. Gun Trafficking To Mexico," M.A., University of California, Berkeley, 2019,  1-58, https://stopusarmstomexico.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/U.S.-Guns-to-Mexico-Final.pdf. 

20. Ibid., 14.

21. "Seizing The Moment On Gun Safety," Bloomberg Quint, January 29, 2021, https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/how-biden-should-seize-the-moment-on-gun-safety. 

22. Agrawal, "Combating U.S. Gun Trafficking To Mexico," 13.

23. Agrawal, "Combating U.S. Gun Trafficking To Mexico," 22.

24. Agrawal, "Combating U.S. Gun Trafficking To Mexico," 22.

25. Agrawal, "Combating U.S. Gun Trafficking To Mexico," 16.

26. Weigend Vargas Eugenio, and Rukmani Bhatia, “Beyond our Borders but Within Our Control,” Center for American Progress, November 1, 2019, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/guns-crime/news/2019/11/01/476576/beyond-borders-within-control/. 

27. Parsons and Weigend Vargas, E, “Beyond Our Borders: How Weak U.S. Gun Laws Contribute to Violent Crime Abroad.”

28. Sieff and Miroff, "The Sniper Rifles Flowing To Mexican Cartels Show A Decade Of U.S. Failure." 

29. Agrawal, 25.

30. Centers For Disease Control and Prevention Press Release, "Overdose Deaths Accelerating During COVID-19," Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 17 December 2020,  https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p1218-overdose-deaths-covid-19.html. 

31. Ibid. 

32. "2018 National Drug Threat Assessment," Drug Enforcement Administration, October 2018, 1-151, https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2018-11/DIR-032-18%202018%20NDTA%20final%20low%20resolution.pdf. 

33. Audrey Travere and Jules Giraudalt, “Revealed: how Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel has created a global network to rule the fentanyl trade,” The Guardian, December 8, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/mexico-cartel-project-synthetic-opioid-fentanyl-drugs. 

34.  “Transcript of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Press Conference,” Government of Mexico, December 31, 2020, https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/es/articulos/version-estenografica-conferencia-de-prensa-del-presidente-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-del-31-de-diciembre-de-2020?idiom=es. 

35. Ebrard Casaubon, “Foreword”, 7. 

36. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Mexico Blog Post, “Progress for Mexico-US Binational Strategy on Illicit Arms Trafficking,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Mexico, November 21, 2019, https://www.gob.mx/sre/articulos/progress-for-mexico-us-binational-strategy-on-illicit-arms-trafficking-227770. 

37. Ariadna García, “Queremos regulación de armas más rígida en EU: jefe de la Oficina de la SRE,” El Universal, February 7, 2021, https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/queremos-regulacion-de-armas-mas-rigida-en-eu-jefe-de-la-oficina-de-la-sre. 

38. Medina, “A Snapshot of Illicit Arms Trafficking in Mexico”, 14.

39.  “Decreto por el que se adicionan diversas disposiciones a la Ley de Seguridad Nacional,” Diario Oficial de la Federación, December 18, 2020, http://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5608287&fecha=18/12/2020. 

40. German Lopez, "Joe Biden’S Gun Plan Calls For Universal Background Checks And An Assault Weapons Ban," Vox, October 2, 2019,  https://www.vox.com/2019/10/2/20894951/joe-biden-gun-control-plan. 

41. Biden-Harris, “The Biden Plan to End Our Gun Violence Epidemic.”

42. Ibid.

43. Ibid.

44. “The Biden Plan to End the Opioid Crisis”, Biden-Harris, n.d., accessed February 12, 2021, https://joebiden.com/opioidcrisis/. 

45. Ribando Seelke , “Mexico: Evolution of the Mérida Initiative, 2007-2021”, 1. 

46. Western Hemisphere Drug Policy Commission, "Report Of The Western Hemisphere Drug Policy Commission," U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, December 2020, 1-112, https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/_cache/files/a/5/a51ee680-e339-4a1b-933f-b15e535fa103/AA2A3440265DDE42367A79D4BCBC9AA1.whdpc-final-report-2020-11.30.pdf; Ibid., 54. 

47. Biden-Harris, “The Biden Plan to End Our Gun Violence Epidemic.”

48. Katherine Schaeffer, "Key facts about Americans and Guns," Pew Research Center, May 11, 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/05/11/key-facts-about-americans-and-guns/. 

49. Devan Cole, “Texas GOP governor signs permit-free gun carrying legislation,” CNN, June 16, 2021, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/16/politics/texas-permitless-gun-bill-abbott/index.html.