By Evan Fowler

In a 2011 Issue of Foreign Policy, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton outlined the Obama Administration’s vision for a strategic pivot to Asia, asserting that the United States must remain in “the best position to sustain our leadership, secure our interests, and advance our values.”1 “One of the most important tasks of American statecraft over the next decade,” she concluded, “will therefore be to lock in a substantially increased investment—diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise—in the Asia-Pacific region.” 2

The turn toward East Asia, however, could place Washington in a vulnerable position in the Middle East. The Arab Spring has fundamentally altered the political and economic landscape of the region. By coupling America’s diplomatic future with East Asia, American leaders jeopardize the chance to re-evaluate and reinvigorate their relationships with regimes across North Africa and the Levant. Existing partnerships and new opportunities for American leadership could easily be overlooked. The United States should capitalize on, rather than squander, this moment.

Ever since Mohamed Bouazizi doused himself in gasoline and catalyzed widespread protests across the Middle East, the world has become cognizant of the deep-seated economic issues that regional policy makers face. Unemployment among youth, increasing demands on social services, political uncertainty, and the global savings glut have diminished the macroeconomic prospects of North African countries. An April 2012 update from the International Monetary Fund admits that, at best, these factors “are likely to result in a slow and drawn-out economic recovery.” 3

While fiscal responsibility rests with the countries themselves, the United States can aid the effort by providing technical support and policy guidance. The United States must maintain and explore new economic partnerships on the microeconomic level, using the U.S.-North Africa Partnership for Economic Opportunity as a template.4 The United States should also continue pushing countries toward a free trade union under the auspices of programs such as the Middle East Free Trade Area Initiative.5 Emphasizing coordination between the private and public sectors can further promote job creation, fiscal austerity, information transparency, and sound economic growth.

The September 11, 2012 murder of U.S. ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens galvanized the American public against further involvement in a region that was envisaged as virulent, fundamentalist, and wholly anti-American. Yet among counterterrorism officials in Washington and in situ, the need to address extremism in the region was even more profound. The Islamist militant group Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb became the apogee for the Islamist threat that hovered over North Africa.6 Other organizations in the region also skyrocketed to the top of the counterterrorism agenda, most notably Ansar Dine in Northern Mali, Boko Haram in Nigeria, and al-Shabaab in Somalia.

The Obama Administration has already begun to take action against these threats through the use of selective drone warfare.7 In weighing its future options, however, it should not only focus on increasing counterterrorism training with existing North African military contacts.8 Training should also be extended to sub-Saharan countries that are grappling with spillover effects, such as Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. The newly created United States Africa Command and the precedent of measures set by the Trans- Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership and its predecessor, the Pan-Sahel Initiative, can provide logistical aid and impart equipment “to help African forces combat groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.”9 While many have feared that the region could backtrack and degenerate into a safe haven for terrorism akin to Taliban-era Afghanistan, the United States is in a position to proactively strengthen local allies and protect American interests.

Two years before Tahrir, President Barack Obama stood behind a podium at Cairo University in Egypt, promising a new dawn for relations between the Muslim world and America, stating: “We have the power to make the world we seek, but only if we have the courage to make a new beginning.” 10 In the wake of the Arab Spring, the region became the poster child for the triumph of democracy and grassroots political evolution as populist movements overthrew several long-standing authoritarian dictators across the Middle East. In his second term, President Obama has an opportunity to fulfill the promises he made in 2009. The United States is in no position to pivot itself toward anything but its own interests, and those interests continue to be deeply entrenched in North Africa.

About the Author

Evan Fowler is a master’s candidate at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He is pursuing a degree in International Relations, with a concentration in Middle East Studies. His research interests include Middle East politics, counterterrorism in North Africa, post-conflict transition, and constitutional development.