Non-State-Led Strategic Surprise and U.S. Foreign Policy: A New Variant of an Old Problem

By John-Michael Arnold

The phenomenon of strategic surprise—a category of unexpected events so consequential that they call into question the premises of existing strategy—has posed a recurring challenge to U.S. foreign policy. Although there is a voluminous literature on the subject, most scholars have focused on surprises unleashed as a deliberate strategy of states in their effort to seize the advantage against adversaries.

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Secular Autocracy vs. Sectarian Democracy? The Christian Predicament in the Syrian Uprising

By Salma Mousa

With the specter of post-Spring Islamist rule looming, Christians in Syria were forced to choose between secular autocracy and sectarian democracy, a decision informed by the perception – and lived reality – that the status quo under al-Assad, though democratically deficient, put a (temporary) lid on civil hostilities and afforded Christian minorities with extensive secular protections and, in many cases, prosperity.

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Completing Democracy: Women’s Rights in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya

By Lucas Bento

Though it seemed that women in countries that played key roles in the Arab Awakening were destined for full emancipation, a number of developments are now undermining prospects for gender equality. But the foundations for change exist, and with the timely implementation of policies and ground-level programs focusing on economic empowerment, education and equality, the rights of women can be significantly improved.

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In the Name of Defense: How the Costs of Assisting the U.S. Arms Industry Outweigh the Benefits

By Michael V. Palinkas

Following the end of the Cold War, the defense budget in the United States began to shrink. In response, domestic arms manufacturers in the U.S. increased their focus on political lobbying. This lobbying worked to gain favorable subsidies for research and development, improve access to foreign markets, and open lucrative secondary markets.

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Why fast-forwarding democracy in the Arab World does not work: Lessons from Algeria

By Rosa Belkadi

An increasing number of religious political parties are gaining power in the Arab world as a result of the social, political, and electoral opportunities created by the “Arab Spring.” Will democracy, which was once seen as the ultimate solution to all trouble in the Middle East and North Africa, bring about the undesirable result of theocratic rule, undermining the very democracy the Arab Spring sought to create?

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Falklands – Assessing Military Preparedness

By Dr. Inna Mattei and Gilles Van Nederveen

With the passing of the 30th anniversary of the Falklands War between the United Kingdom and Argentina this year, and the recent flaring up of tensions between the two nations over the status of the Falkland Islands, an examination of the current force structure in the South Pacific is needed to realistically assess military contingencies.

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China’s Foreign Policy Research Institutes: Influence on Decision-Making and the 5th Generation Communist Party Leadership

By Michael Morrison

As the Chinese Communist Party prepares for a major leadership transition, China’s foreign policy think tanks are poised to contribute to the conceptualization and propagation of major foreign policy initiatives. This article examines the degree to which Party and State leaders look to think tanks for analysis, and how think tanks can be used as a window into Chinese decision-making.

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